Bank Owned Properties

TransUnion Forecasts 3% Drop in Mortgage Delinquencies Next Year

Mortgage delinquencies have skyrocketed for three years straight, but we can expect to see that trend reverse in 2010, according to the Chicago-based credit management company TransUnion. The firm said in a report issued Tuesday that the number of homeowners 60 or more days behind on their mortgage payments will drop nearly 3 percent by the end of next year, to a national mortgage delinquency rate of 6.39 percent. The projected decrease in mortgage delinquencies would end a trend that included unprecedented year-over-year increases of 54 percent between 2006 and 2007, 53 percent between 2007 and 2008, and 43 percent between 2008 and 2009. "We believe the nation will see a turnaround in mortgage delinquencies in the coming year," said Ezra Becker, director of consulting and strategy in TransUnion's financial services group. Becker says the decrease in late mortgage payments will be gradual over the next 12 months, tied directly to unemployment and housing values. Still, it's a welcome change from the double digit year-over-year increases that have been the norm for the past several years. According to Becker, the dramatic shift in the delinquency rate will be driven in part by the conservative approach lenders are now taking to new loan underwriting, as many of the existing mortgages in the market work their way out of the system and off the books of lending institutions. Though the projected rate of decrease in mortgage delinquencies will be relatively slow for a majority of the nation, TransUnion says 22 states are expected to experience double-digit declines in delinquency as housing values in those states improve. The states with the greatest decrease in mortgage delinquencies are expected to be North Dakota, Minnesota, and Oklahoma. Only five states are projected to see increases in mortgage delinquencies, according to TransUnion. Florida is expected to continue to take a beating, with a 17.34 percent increase that pushes its delinquency rate to 16.86 percent of all mortgages in the state - the highest in the nation in 2010, TransUnion says. The other states forecast by the firm to post increases in late mortgage payments next year are Arizona (6.26 percent increase), California (0.93), New York (0.43), and Virginia (0.37).

DSNews.com - Carrie Bay - 12/8/09

Beth Brown, P.A., GRI, ABR
Coldwell Banker
550 Fifth Ave S.
Naples, FL 34102
Cell 239-250-2408
Fax 1-866-814-2967
BethBrownRealtor@comcast.net
http://www.callnapleshome.com/
http://www.naplesforeclosurereo.com/

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Foreclosure bargains are disappearing

ATLANTA - Aug. 10, 2009 - Buyers of foreclosure have to be quick these days. Some houses go under contract fewer than 90 minutes after they are put on the market, says Brad Geisen, founder of Foreclosure.com."For every listing that comes out, we have 10 buyers," says Cesar Dias, an associate with Approved Real Estate Group in Stockton, Calif. Dias had 15 minutes of fame after introducing foreclosure sales tours last year. Now the tours are defunct because there are not enough homes to show."We had a lot of inventory last summer. Now we're down to 1,500 listings - from more than 5,000," Dias says.In Florida, real-estate investment companies, buying in bulk and paying cash, face competition.Even in the hard-hit Detroit area, bargains are disappearing."For a good house that's not too beat up in a good neighborhood, there's no lack of buyers in this market," says Andy Sakmar, founder of Century 21 Sakmar in Rochester, 20 miles north of the city. "There are a lot fewer of these properties than a year ago, and the super buys get multiple offers."
Source: CNNMoney.com, Les Christie (08/06/2009)

Beth Brown, P.A., GRI, ABR
Coldwell Banker
550 Fifth Ave S.
Naples, FL 34102
Cell 239-250-2408
Fax 1-866-814-2967
BethBrownRealtor@comcast.net
http://www.callnapleshome.com/
http://www.naplesforeclosurereo.com/

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New Housing Crash Looms as Shadow Inventory Climbs past 7 Million: Analysts

The housing crash is about to come back with a vengeance, as 7 million new foreclosure properties are about to hit the market, analysts at Amherst Securities Group LP said this week.
The New York-based mortgage-bond analysts called that number – which is about five-and-a-half times larger than 2005’s national tally of delinquencies and foreclosures – a huge shadow inventory that threatens to further destabilize a housing market that had shown signs of righting itself over the summer.
Despite some recent optimism, many market observers now agree on several factors that are expanding the nation’s shadow inventory. Loan modifications, legal wrangling, redefaults and bank practices have delayed foreclosures while actually worsening many homeowners’ positions.
As a result, the analysts say a so-far undisclosed glut of homes is about to come to light, and it’s likely to further depress values and sales.
There’s going to be a flood [of bank-owned homes] listed for sale at some point, John Burns, a real-estate consultant based in Irvine, California, told the Wall Street Journal this week. He expects prices to decline another 6 percent this year. The analysts at Amherst predicted an 8 percent drop, while a Sept. 11 report by Barclays forecasted a further 13 percent drop, saying the worst of the crash is decidedly underway, with increased foreclosures sapping “the strength of the recovery in all but the most optimistic of scenarios.”
One cause of the problem, the Journal says, is unintended fallout from well-meaning efforts to keep families in their homes. Foreclosures have been stalled by state moratoriums, as well as by lenders and servicers who are using the time to determine if troubled borrowers are eligible for loan modifications.
We are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running for modifications or other alternatives to foreclosing, a Bank of America Corp. spokeswoman told the Journal, adding that government pressure to stem foreclosures had reduced their foreclosure sales to abnormally low levels.
But as many proposed modifications result in higher monthly payments or other terms the borrowers don’t like, more potential foreclosures are getting held up in court, too. That’s what happened to Debra and Arthur Scriven of Columbia, South Carolina, who told the Journal that Citigroup had attempted to foreclose on them 15 months ago. Since then, the lender offered a modification they felt was unfair, and their situation has stalled as they await a date for a hearing in foreclosure court.
But evidence is mounting that even when modifications are successfully written, the likelihood of a borrower defaulting again – and heading for foreclosure again – is alarmingly high. That’s because even a significant reduction in interest or principal can’t save a homeowner who’s underwater or overleveraged. Modifications have made not much of a difference in the shadow inventory, the Amherst analysts’ report said. And many of these borrowers would default later, if they remain in a negative equity position, they added.
Banks, too, are contributing to the shadow inventory problem. Fearful of the added costs of acquiring foreclosure properties and trying to sell them, many banks have simply declined to foreclose on some of their most non-performing borrowers. According to a report by LPS Applied Statistics, banks hadn’t even begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million properties that are 90 days or more past due. In July, 217,000 mortgages that hadn’t seen a payment in a year still weren’t being foreclosed on – a number that’s more than doubled since last year. Lenders have also scaled back their bidding at the public auctions and trustee sales that usually precede a bank foreclosure. That’s letting outside investors pick up the properties at a deep discount: According to the research firm ForeclosureRadar.com, 19 percent of homes sold in August in California trustee sales went to investors and not lenders – a 500 percent increase in the past year.
What this all means, the Amherst analysts say, is that the shadow inventory will soon eclipse the economy’s recent sunny outlook.
“The favorable seasonals will disappear over the coming months, and the reality of a 7 million-unit housing overhang is likely to set in,” they said.
DSNews.com By: Adam Weinstein 9/25/09

Beth Brown, P.A., GRI, ABR Coldwell Banker 550 Fifth Ave S. Naples, FL 34102 Cell 239-250-2408 Fax 1-866-814-2967 BethBrownRealtor@comcast.net http://www.callnapleshome.com/ http://www.naplesforeclosurereo.com/

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Foreclosure bargains are disappearing

ATLANTA-Aug. 10, 2009-Buyers of foreclosure have to be quick these days. Some houses go under contract fewer than 90 minutes after they are put on the market, says Brad Geisen, founder of Foreclosure.com.

"For every listing that comes out, we have 10 buyers," says Cesar Dias, an associate with Approved Real Estate Group in Stockton, Calif. Dias had 15 minutes of fame after introducing foreclosure sales tours last year. Now the tours are defunct because there are not enough homes to show.

"We had a lot of inventory last summer. Now we're down to 1,500 listings-from more than 5,000," Dias says.

In Florida, real-estate investment companies, buying in bulk and paying cash, face competition.
Even in the hard-hit Detroit area, bargains are disappearing.

“For a good house that’s not too beat up in a good neighborhood, there's no lack of buyers in this market,” says Andy Sakmar, founder of Century 21 Sakmar in Rochester, 20 miles north of the city. "There are a lot fewer of these properties than a year ago, and the super buys get multiple offers."

Source: CNNMoney.com, Les Christie (08/06/2009)
Copyright 2009 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688

Beth Brown P.A., GRI, ABR
Coldwell Banker
550 5th Ave S.
Naples, FL 34102
BethBrownRealtor@comcast.net
Cell 239-250-2408
Fax 866-814-2967
http://www.callnapleshome.com/
www.NaplesForeclosureREO.com

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Metro areas worst hit by foreclosures in 2009

TAMPA - Ten of the country's 25 metro areas worst hit by foreclosures this year are in Florida, RealtyTrac of California says in a report released today. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater saw 33,906 foreclosure filings from January through June, up nearly 32 percent from the same period a year ago. That's one filing for about every 39 properties. Still, filings were down nearly 3 percent from the previous six-month period.

Worst-hit cities are measured by foreclosure homes as a percentage of all homes.
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. 7.45%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers 7.20%
Merced, Calif. 6.89%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 5.73%
Stockton, Calif. 5.64%
Modesto, Calif. 5.38%
Bakersfield, Calif. 4.53%
Vallejo-Fairfield, Calif. 4.48%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. 4.44%
Orlando-Kissimmee 4.28%
Port St. Lucie 4.00%
Naples-Marco Island 3.64%
Reno-Sparks, Nev. 3.63%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach 3.54%
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif. 3.46%
Salinas, Calif. 3.11%
Fresno, Calif. 3.08%
Visalia-Porterville, Calif. 2.91%
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach 2.69%
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. 2.67%
Lakeland 2.67%
Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice 2.66%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater 2.58%
Ocala 2.57%
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif. 2.48%

The Tampa Tribune
Published: July 30, 2009

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1.5 million homes in foreclosure in '09

Homeowners fell behind on mortgage payments in record numbers during the first six months of 2009. The future doesn't look much better.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The foreclosure plague is not going away -- it's only getting worse.

A record 1.53 million properties were in the foreclosure process -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- during the first six months of 2009. That was 9% more than the previous six months and 15% more than the same period of 2008, according to a report released Thursday by RealtyTrac.

There were a total of 1.91 million filings resulting in 1 out of every 84 U.S. properties receiving at least one filing in the first half of the year. Banks repossessed 386,800 properties.

"What this means is, despite the intensity of the efforts on the part of government and lenders we don't have a handle on foreclosures yet," said Rick Sharga, a spokesman for RealtyTrac.
And, in a bad sign for a housing recovery, there was no recorded improvement in June, the last month of the cycle. More than 336,000 homes reported foreclosure filings, the fourth straight 300,000-plus month. Filings were up 33% over last June and nearly 5% compared with May.

"Foreclosure activity continues to increase to record levels," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac in a prepared statement. "Unemployment-related foreclosures account for much of this increased activity, and the high number of borrowers who find themselves owing more on their mortgages than their homes' are now worth represent a potentially significant future risk."

It's the economy
The biggest problem affecting foreclosure figures is the recession. As job losses mount, more out-of-work borrowers are falling behind on payments. And home prices are still falling, albeit at a slower rate, which by itself is enough to drive more homeowners into default.

The home-price drop means more homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, owing more than their home is worth. That discourages some borrowers from repaying loans because they see it as a poor financial decision to keep paying on a declining asset.

Homeowners are apt to walk away from their mortgages once their home values fall 15% below their mortgage balances, according to recent research reported by Paola Sapienza of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, and Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

They claim that at least 25% of all mortgage defaults may be "strategic," borrowers walking away from their homes because they've lost so much value. And in many of the areas hardest hit by foreclosure, home prices have fallen by 40% or more.

Others, however, are working with their lenders, trying to get the terms of their loans modified so they can stay in their homes. But that process has been slow and infuriating to many borrowers and community activists.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, the government watchdog created to manage Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), reported Wednesday that only 13,800 mortgages had been modified by Fannie/Freddie lenders in April. That is down 12% from March.

The stats did not include workouts arranged through the Home Affordable Modification Program, the administration's foreclosure prevention effort that seems to be making very slow progress.

The program, which got up to speed in April, has resulted in 43,000 refinances and more than 325,000 offers to modify loans. Another 160,000 have borrowers accepted and are currently in the process of restructuring. But before these modifications can be recorded as final, the borrowers must make three months of on-time payments.

Another reason for the slow progress, according to a research paper released by the Federal Reserve of Boston, is that some banks have some sound financial reasons to drag their heels.
Many delinquent homeowners, for example, "self-cure," that is, start paying again without assistance. In a report issued last week, the Fed found that an estimated 30% of all borrowers who miss two payments start repaying on their own.

If the lenders had modified these loans, the would have lost money unnecessarily.
A second reason, according to the report, is that so many modified loans re-default, with up to 50% of all modified mortgages succumbing. That costs the banks twice: They bear the expenses of the initial workouts and they pay again to finish the foreclosures, including any additional missed payments.

And by postponing foreclosures, lenders absorb any subsequent housing value losses. If the final repossessions are delayed a year, the lenders could be getting houses worth 10%, 20% or even 50% less than they were at the point of the original default. The banks would have been better off foreclosing then.

"We think these are very powerful forces [acting against modification]," said Manuel Adelino, one of the authors of the report.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: July 16, 2009: 2:31 PM ET


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